Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
